While the elections are in the US, they might matter more for Europe than they do for the US. Trump could bring heavy volatility in the European stock markets like the EuroStoxx, due to several reasons.
Europe depending on the US in the war
The first reason has to do with the vulnerability of Europe towards Russia. Europe alone will have difficulties helping Ukraine enough to be able to withstand Russia or at least help Ukraine to get into a good position at the negotiation table that will be there sooner or later. The US is essential in the overall aid packages for Ukraine and also in scaring off tactics versus Putin. A Trump win will bring uncertainty around the support for Ukraine and also the membership of the US with regards to NATO. As Europe is geopolitically a weak player, they need the US on their side. Europe has always leaned too much on the US and never really thought about their geopolitical status and being an innovative economy.
New tariffs coming
The second reason is that Trump will most likely induce new tariffs on Europe. Trump wants to create as many as US jobs as possible and he will use new tariffs on European cars as a way to boost the US car businesses. Trump might do a good job for the US economy, but Europe will be having difficulties.
Europe needs to invent itself again
In general, Europe’s economy is mostly ‘driving’ on old industries. And then once they have a brilliant company like ASML, the US comes with sanctions on the export to China. Cause otherwise? They might leave NATO? Or Rutte would have not become the NATO secretary? Europe is in every geopolitical game that is being played, 0 – 3 behind and even Germany is not able anymore to score in the final minutes of the game.
HARRIS win will be dopamine shot for Europe
On the other side, if Harris wins, Europe will initially be very happy. But so happy that they still will not fix the current situation. So that in 4 years they might be even doing worse on the geopolitical field. Europe has to reinvent itself to become a strong geopolitical player and otherwise it will end like an open air museum.
