Brexit, an ongoing story coming to an end?

The Brexit saga has been going on since June 2016, when the people of the UK decided in favor of a Brexit. Since then there has been a long negotiation process with the EU. The UK wants a great deal, wants to make it difficult for the UK, and as good as possible for themselves. The EU does not like Brexit to become a success story. This could lead to more countries following the same path in the future. The EU also does not want a chaotic Brexit as this will harm the European economy.

Boris Johnson agreed a deal with the EU

On Thursday, Boris Johnson agreed a deal with the EU and now needs to get it through parliament. Tricky, but possible. If he gets it through parliament, then the Brexit saga might finally come to an end and the UK can leave the EU with a deal. Markets will be relieved and the European economy will be posively affected by an orderly Brexit.

Boris Johnson was forced to request an extension

The Brexit is anything but done yet as the UK parliament probably first need to vote on the deal. In the mean time, Boris Johnson was forced, in line with the so-called Benn Act, to send a letter to the EU reqyesting a three-month extension to Brexit. Johnson did not sign the letter and he then sent an extra letter in which he said that he does not think there should be an extension. Boris Johnson has always said the UK would leave the EU on the 31st of October, with or without a deal. It is quite likely he is not going to deliver on that promise.

What’s next?

The government of the UK plans to hold a meaningful vote on Monday where the parliament has to say yes or no to the deal. The vote might pass, but it is definitely not a high certainty. More like a 50/50. Above all, it is not clear yet whether the Speaker will allow that vote to take place. The government could also try to press ahead with legislation to implement the deal next week. A meaningful vote is in that case not needed.

Most likely case

The most likely outcome is that the UK will not be leaving the EU on the 31st of October and that another extension is needed. All 27 EU leaders have to agree on such an extension. The extension will probably happen. The expectation is that new general elections will be called in the UK. This election can help forming a strong government that can actually get a deal through the parliament.

Market uncertainty?

The chance of a no-deal Brexit has gone down significantly in the last weeks. Boris Johnson has shown he can actually agree on a deal with the EU. This brought optimism to the financial markets. The deal might not pass parliament, but still there is a deal and Johnson has been forced to ask for an extension. It is very unlikely the UK will exit the EU on the 31st of October. The story is going to continue. It is likely the UK will eventually leave the EU with a deal. The question is: when?

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