The US stock market volatility is coming down and new highs have been reached this week. There is continued optimism that the US and China are getting closer to signing off the ‘Phase 1’ deal. Moreover, economic data remains solid.
The week was very queit with on Thursday Thanksgiving. Every Thanksgiving 46 million turkeys get finished by the Americans. Enough reason to close the stock market that day.
US elections November 2020
The upcoming year has one big central topic: the US elections. The main question is, can Trump get his second term as president? Quite a bit depends on how the economy and the stock market will perform in 2020. So far, Trump chances look good.
40%
Based on the polls, Trump has a over 40% chance to get reelected. The democrats have not yet one candidate of which you would think, wow that person is going to give Trump a hard time. Who are the main contenders on the Democrat side? In order of likelyhood of becoming president (on betfair):
- Joe Biden (12%)
- Pete Buttegieg (10%)
- Elizabeth Warren (7%)
- Bernie Sanders (7%)
- Michael Bloomberg (5%)
Joe Biden (77 years) currently has the highest chance, but the whole story with Ukraine and his son has not really helped Biden. Biden is a reasonable guy who has reasonable economic ideas and is not a danger to the stock markets. He is there for the middle class which he likes to ‘save’. He is not that much of an activist that wants to destroy the wealthy and save the environment at all cost. Joe is the most market friendly Democrat.
Pete Buttegieg (37 years) is the newcomer and his main advantage is that he is only 37. And probably the only Democrat candidate that would survive two presedential terms :). The others are all 70 years or older. Pete is openly gay, a millenial and a war veteran. Quite a nice profile for a president. He is quite an environmentalist and wants to tax the rich most. But he is not that extreme in these views. Pete is pragmatic and the financial markets would not dislike that.
Elizabeth Warren (70 years) is the Robin Hood of these days. She is very extreme in her thoughts and a real environmental activist. The financial market and the US economy would not like her to become president. She wants to ban all fracking which would kill the US oil business and heavily harm the US economy. She also wants to let the rich pay for all the medical care in the country. Her extreme ideas are currently backfiring her in the polls. She will probably lose more ground and have not that much of a chance to become president.
Bernie Sanders (78 years) is old and he recently had a heart attack. His health situation is probably not gonna help. Moreover he is bad for the financial markets and a bit in line with Elizabeth Warren. Bernie should retire and enjoy his last days, but not focus on a presidency.
Michael Bloomberg (77 years) is a business man and one of the wealthies guys in the world. Bloomberg was a Republican in the past and now is a Democrat. He was the major of NYC and will know how to run a country like the US. He would be a very interesting choice for the economy. He has a tremendous amount of money, so I expect him to use that to climb in the polls.
In February there are many Democratic primaries where we get more insight on who will become the Democratic nominee for the US elections in November 2020.
